Australia's leading demographer Bernard Salt says Wagga is already behaving like a capital city

Daily Advertiser 26th September 2019

WAGGA is already behaving like a small capital city, according to a celebrated demographer who says the pursuit towards 100,000 residents is well within reach. The city has plenty to boast about, from its university and airport to the military base, which other regional cities look at in envy. Bernard Salt, who studies demographic changes and provides independent analysis to governments, said it is these services that communities of a similar size throughout Australia cannot replicate. Mr Salt is in Wagga this morning to facilitate a panel discussion comprising of experts in fields such as health, business, education and employment. The panel of seven are partaking in a Q&A session addressing the critical growth factors to meet the 2038 target. The seminar, organised by Committee 4 Wagga, has come in response to the state government's 20-year economic vision for regional NSW, which endorsed the city's growth by 33,000 residents in 19 years. Mr Salt said Wagga has the apparatus of a bigger city, which sets it up for rapid growth.

When you look at the demography of Wagga, its rate of growth, the ethnic composition, the areas of where its generating jobs in health, education, construction and professional services ... Wagga in many respects is already behaving a lot like a small capital city," he said. To reach the 2038 target, the city needs to grow at 2.1 per cent each year, more than double the average growth rate of 1 per cent between 2006 and 2016. Statistics from Forecast.id predict the city will fall short of the target by about 19,000 people based on long-term growth trends. Despite this, community leaders remain optimistic it is achievable because investment opportunities had not been taken into account. However, the greatest obstacle in the way of reaching the goal will be the drought, said Mr Salt. He added that Wagga cannot trend towards 100,000 residents without the help of the entire Riverina, which is currently facing hardships. "There has been significant job growth in Wagga across a number of sectors, but equally there has been job loss in manufacturing, agribusiness and agriculture," he said. "Wagga is more than just the local municipality, it is its own territory, it's the whole Riverina. And when the Riverina does well then Wagga does well ... it can't do that on its own." There are about 14 cities with a population greater than 100,000, but under 1 million. Very few, such as Wagga, Albury-Wodonga and Toowoomba in Queensland, are located inland. The commonality between these cities, which Mr Salt has identified, are that they command their own territories and are generally very well-watered. Wagga will similarly need to "dominate a productive, fertile, well-watered Riverina" to accelerate its growth. "Those issues need to be resolved and it will need a bit of luck in agricultural Australia where drought is part of the scene. Once we are through the drought, Wagga will pick up its pace of growth and head towards 100,000," he said. "Whether that be by 2038 will depend on the drought, but if its happens in 2038, 2048 or 2054 at least the community of 2019 are thinking about what it needs to do to create a bigger, stronger and more resilient community in the future." A part of this planning will be to identify Wagga's natural advantage, which Mr Salt said could be found in the fact that younger people tend to gravitate towards the regional city. "Wagga has an extraordinarily young population (in their 20s) for a rural community, which is driven by the university and military," Mr Salt said. "Young people generally leave to go to big cities and for whatever reason Wagga is different." He said the community needs to find a way to leverage that "young energy, muscle and talent," which perhaps could be in the form of a festival. "I'm not talking a B&S Ball, but a festival of youth, sport, energy, enterprise, celebrating youth who are regionally proud, of the great west divide youth," he said. According to Mr Salt, behind every thriving city and region is a community that specialises in a service. He said agricultural technology is the right move for Wagga. The industry is predicted to become Australia's next $100 billion industry by 2030. Wagga's Agtech Hub has been listed as one of Australia's world-leading technology hubs and research facilities that will help commercialise new products and processes. "Australia really should be world leaders in technology associated with agriculture and I would have thought there would be or is a division in the department of Charles Sturt University that's in that space at the moment," Mr Salt said. "Regional education, agricultural technology and start-up businesses associated with Agtech that are all coming out of this creative, enterprising inland city in Australia that's well-connected by rail, road and air would certainly make sense." Mr Salt said the city's future will depend on its ability to cultivate and support business activity. This starts with small actions that foster an entrepreneurial culture in the next generation, such as celebrating the best new business in Wagga created by a person under the age of 30. "Our future depends on our ability to ... support the entrepreneur of today to create the businesses of tomorrow, which will deliver the prosperity of the future," he said. "So what can we do to support the next generation of businesses ... coming out of Wagga?" These topics will be discussed at the seminar this morning. However, Mr Salt said the best outcome will not be found in today's findings, but rather the chance to galvanise the community into taking control. "It's very important when you talk about the future and engage the grassroots community that everyone becomes enthusiastic ... to build a better community," he said. "When you get community engagement like that the political and business leaders will get on board because the will of the people is focused on creating a stronger community."

Bernard Salt